Ascend Trading Agent
Autonomous prediction market trader
Prediction markets like Ascend on Cardano offer perpetual event contracts across crypto, commodities, stocks, and sports. Markets expire every few minutes, requiring rapid evaluation and execution. No human can monitor 21+ markets simultaneously, pull data from 14 sources, calculate edge, size positions, and manage risk in real time.
A fully autonomous agent that runs 24/7, evaluating every active market against 14 independent data feeds, entering positions when edge exceeds asset-specific thresholds, and managing risk with trailing stops, edge-flip exits, and sentiment-reactive closes. Controlled entirely via Telegram with natural language commands.
How It Works
14-Source Evaluation Engine
Pulls live data from Coinbase, Binance, Pyth Network, CoinGecko, TapTools, Yahoo Finance, Polymarket, Kalshi, The Odds API, ESPN, Guardian, Currents, Newsdata, and FRED. Each source independently contributes to an edge calculation with confidence scoring.
Sniper System
Scans markets within a 2-minute expiry window, enters at 60 seconds (90 seconds for high confidence). Uses rolling reference prices from prior market settlements. Detects flip opportunities when price crosses the reference while positioned on the wrong side.
Risk Engine
Take profit at +15%, stop loss at -10%, trailing stop activates at +8% and trails by 5%. Monitors crowd sentiment shifts and edge decay for early exits. Settlement detection handles market expiry automatically.
Velocity Spike Detector
Monitors external feed prices every 10 seconds. Detects abnormal price acceleration (5x normal rate) before the Ascend crowd reacts. Automatically closes wrong-side positions and re-enters on the spike direction.
Cross-Market Momentum
Tracks correlated asset groups (crypto, metals, stocks, energy) and inverse pairs (crypto vs metals). When 2+ correlated assets settle in the same direction, boosts confidence for remaining assets in the group.
Crowd Intelligence
Polls orderbook depth and yes/no percentages every 30 seconds for all active markets. Detects sentiment shifts (6+ point swings) to trigger profit-taking and contrarian re-entries.
Key Features
Portfolio-Percentage Sizing
Position sizes scale with account balance, edge strength, and confidence tier. Kelly criterion with adjustment caps prevents overexposure on any single trade.
Auto-Tune Feedback Loop
After 10+ trades per market profile, the agent auto-adjusts edge thresholds, sizing multipliers, and entry timing based on realized win rates and PnL.
Telegram Control Center
Full bot interface: /status, /positions, /accuracy, /trade, /close, /autotrader, /momentum, /velocity. Supports natural language queries and a 60-second veto window for auto-entries.
Ghost Position Recovery
When the exchange settles a position but the API returns 500, the agent tracks it as a ghost position in SQLite. Ghosts are excluded from re-discovery and auto-cleaned after 24 hours.
Orderbook Surge Detection
Detects rapid shifts in orderbook imbalance or mark price momentum between snapshots. Feeds into confidence scoring to boost or drag entry decisions.
Graceful Shutdown
On SIGINT/SIGTERM, sends a Telegram notification listing all open positions before exiting. No silent crashes or orphaned positions.
Tech Stack
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